An outbreak of a new type of coronavirus in a couple of months has become a global problem for humanity. The virus that came from China has infected more than 150 thousand people around the world, and more than 6 thousand people have died. In Europe, the infection officially came to all countries except Montenegro. According to the latest data, 63 cases are known in Russia, but the number is increasing every day.
All mass events, including sports events, have been suspended all over the world. In Europe, only Serbia, Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey, and Russia continue to play football. The other countries suspended the Championships or ended the tournaments prematurely. In foot hockey, all Championships except the KHL, but at the weekend, Jokerit refused to continue playing in the Gagarin Cup.
We talked with Alexey Nabatov, doctor of biological Sciences and leading researcher of the Department of sports biochemistry and genetics of the Volga region Academy of sports. For many years, he was engaged in science in leading research centers in the United States and the Netherlands, and now continues to work in Russia. In an interview with BUSINESS Online, Nabatov answered the most important questions about the pandemic: whether the coronavirus vaccine will help, whether masks help, whether the virus is artificially constructed, and whether the ban on sports events is justified.
"IT SEEMS TO ME THAT IN TWO OR THREE WEEKS THERE WILL BE AN OUTBREAK SOMEWHERE IN RUSSIA»
- Alexey Anatolyevich, is banning sports events a real way to save athletes and people? Why don't they close the metro and shopping centers?
– If we stop the transport, everything will stand up. It's impossible. You will need to declare a quarantine, as in Wuhan, where only hospitals and life-support systems such as electricity and water, as well as grocery stores work. In stadiums, people sit for two hours close to each other, but more for fun. At this time, it is better to prevent any mass gatherings of people, if possible.
I am afraid that they will delay the quarantine until the last, when everything will be completely spontaneous. But such measures as quarantine should always be taken earlier. Now we have taken a step to prevent sports and cultural events, but for some reason not in the whole country. I have already told all my friends not to go to exhibitions, concerts and other places of large gatherings. The virus is already here. I think that in two or three weeks there will be an outbreak somewhere in Russia. Critical mass for the outbreak has been reached.
Just the other day, I was told that two passengers from Russia arrived in Israel on a direct flight. They were found to have a coronavirus at the airport there. And I am not sure that these were the only two Russians who were infected in Russia. They definitely could not get infected at the airport somewhere in Sheremetyevo, because it takes time for the infection to develop, and this time is definitely longer than the flight time to Israel.
– In the world, all major sports tournaments are suspended, and on Saturday, Zenit did not even limit the number of people present in the stands at its stadium. They play matches with fans in other cities. Why do we do this?
– Everyone believes that Russia is a safe haven. But this is not the case. No crisis of the past twenty-five years has spared Russia. Well, the fact that such things happen, which you have mentioned, carry a danger – you can not even discuss. Of course, we need to stop all mass events, including sports events. In the US, the NBA and NHL were stopped. And that's right, because they have a virus, and the situation in Seattle is already out of control. Quarantine is a normal anti-epidemic measure, recognized by all experts as one of the most effective in containing the spread of infections.
– What precautions can we take?"
– The most important thing is to constantly wash your hands and not shake them. If possible, try to stay at home or walk in deserted places, because it is impossible to catch the virus just in the fresh air.
"Masks?"
– Good advice was given by a man who spent almost all his life studying the coronavirus. Masks do not prevent infection by airborne droplets. They do not allow the infection to be released, but most importantly-they isolate the face from us. We touch our face about 90 times a day. And it is safer to do it through a mask, although now you need to wean yourself from it altogether. I would also recommend gloves and touching everything in public in them. Unlike the flu, coronavirus spreads better from contact with the surface, so wet wipes and antiseptics will be effective, always keep them with you.
- Can athletes be at risk now?
– They are always in this zone because of the immune system. If the training process is built incorrectly, the immune system will be suppressed.
"IN ITALY, PEOPLE HUG AND KISS, THIS IS IDEAL FOR THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS»
– Why is the peak point in Europe – Italy?
"It's hard to say. Italy has one of the largest populations of elderly people. If we look at the death rate, it is one of the highest in the world, although it is a developed country. And it is people of the most advanced age who die. In addition, Italians are quite emotional and have a habit of tactile relations with each other. People hug and kiss, which is ideal for the spread of coronavirus infection.
– This week, the who declared the coronavirus a pandemic. What is the difference from an epidemic?
– This means that the problem of coronavirus has begun to affect the whole world. There are no corners left on the planet where you can hide and be sure that the disease will not reach you. There is no limit on the number that the virus needs to overcome. We are talking about the coverage of the territory, the prefix "pan" means "all, all".
– Is it safe to say that all older people are at risk?
– It's not that simple. The virus doesn't look at the passport. This is due to the immune system. Almost all those who died in Italy were suffering from pathologies, and the coronavirus was layered on them.
There are diseases like AIDS that will kill you sooner or later if you don't treat It. There is anthrax, where the survival rate without treatment is 1-2 percent. When we are faced with a coronavirus, which has a mortality rate of 3-6%, we need to focus on the immune system. And the elderly may have problems with it, although infants also have a weak immune system, but there are no mass deaths from viruses among infants. And here we return to the question of visits to places with a mass concentration of people.
– It's getting warmer now, is it easier for the virus to spread in this weather?
– On the contrary. All viruses are extremely sensitive to ultraviolet light, i.e. sunlight. The closer the summer gets, the safer it gets. I don't really understand why warm Italy is sick in this regard. Perhaps it was their love of contact with each other that affected them.
"WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THERE WON'T BE A MAGIC SHOT THAT WILL CURE EVERYONE»
– Will there be a coronavirus vaccine?
– As an expert in this matter, I can say that there will probably be no vaccine for coronavirus. The maximum will be a certain analog of influenza, that is, its effectiveness will be far from ideal. All textbooks prescribe a dogma – if a person has had an infection, this is the best vaccination. If a person has had measles, they do not need to be vaccinated, because they have been injected with more than one virus antigen, and they have encountered the entire virus in all its manifestations.
As for the coronavirus, more than two hundred cases of repeated coronavirus disease have already been described. The immune system of these people coped, received a superlative vaccination, but a few weeks later they again became infected with the same coronavirus. You can argue that they are weak people, but then they would not have coped with the first infection. In short, this is due to the fact that in this short period of time, the virus managed to mutate and return to another, so that the second time was not exactly the same virus. And the immune system will no longer recognize it.
In these circumstances, I don't see how we can invent a vaccine. The same problem occurs with the flu virus, so in General, vaccinations are not a panacea. We need to all tune in that, most likely, there will not be a magic injection that will cure everyone.
– How high is the psychological attack in this virus?
- Numbers answer best. The death rate in Italy is now above 6 percent. The Washington Post recently wrote that Iran has begun to dig trenches for the burial of bodies. This is all quite serious. And I wouldn't believe it was all made up.
– Is it necessary to buy products now, following the example of the United States?
– The economy there is based on private business. The owner of the network can collapse everything at any time, so people there notice a panic. In Russia, the conditions are different. If the state says to work, everyone will go to work, including the stores.
"GOD ONLY KNOWS HOW THIS VIRUS WILL BEHAVE»
– There is a theory that the coronavirus is a biological weapon created by humans. Is it possible?
– We can say that the coronavirus was invented in secret laboratories of pension funds that do not want to pay pensioners! But this is black humor of course. Seriously speaking, it is almost impossible to consciously simulate such a virus.
In this regard, there is an illustrative history of how molecular biology arose in the USSR. Since the late 70s, Western Europe and the United States have banned molecular biology because it was unclear what they would lead to. It's like today's ban on human cloning. But the Soviet Union decided to do the opposite. And it ended simply.
Scientists took a diphtheria toxin gene, put it in the Escherichia coli, and then gave it to those sentenced to death. But there was nothing there, no diphtheria. The explanation was simple – genetically modified bacteria began to compete with their wild counterparts in the bodies of these suicide bombers, and the latter won the competition. In Petri dishes the bacteria artificially genemedicine work fine, but it's ideal conditions. And in real conditions, it is difficult to create a competitive virus. Evolution is not so simple. It is the same with any biological object, and our knowledge is absolutely not enough to calculate all the consequences of "loading" artificial viruses into real conditions.
– So there's no reason not to believe that the virus came from a Chinese man who ate a snake that had previously eaten an infected bat?"
– Of course. Another thing is that this Chinese could be weak in terms of the immune system. The most difficult part of this process is the adaptation of the virus from one species to another. If the immune system is weak, there is time to adapt. If there was a strong body, it would not give the virus time to adapt and the infection would not pass further. Then the virus mutated, becoming a human virus. Well, the virus itself in animals in person could also come from other species.
– This week, a Russian scientist predicted the end of the coronavirus pandemic, saying that the situation will stabilize by mid-summer. Can we make any forecasts on this issue now?
– In January, we did not think that Italy would suffer from the virus. Maybe there will be a second wave. Experts believe that it should be expected in the same China. Now it has gone down, and then boomerang may return from neighboring countries.
I wouldn't make any predictions. This is a completely new infection. Yes, humanity has already encountered SARS and MERS, but outbreaks of these types of coronavirus were stopped and not recognized as a pandemic. God only knows how the Chinese coronavirus will behave.
